>> texas people wear socks, right? >> i personally wear socks and most texans do. >> deep southerner, yeah, people in the deep south don't? what did you learn? >> i learned that chris likes it where he is right now because alex, you and joe and i need to meet after the show. >> she does this about once a week, it's a woodshed moment. hey, alex, thanks a lot, buddy, thanks a lot. >> i have to defrost the refrigerator, so i can't join you. >> i was doing that during a certain interview. willie, it's way too early. >> we'll see you tomorrow, stick around for chuck. there's your bounce, the pew poll propels mitt romney.

kentucky derby, all eyes turn to the bluegrass state. how much pressure faces paul ryan. and this morning, former penn state football coach jerry sandusky finds out if he'll spend the rest of his life in prison on 45 counts of child sex abuse, he already put out a taped statement denying it all. we'll have the latest from the courthouse as soon as it happens. it is happening within minutes there in pennsylvania. good morning from washington, it's four weeks until election day, tuesday, october 10. will romney serve in national polling translate into gains where it really matters t battleground states, the mimpb battleground states of iowa, wisconsin and ohio. romney will not be president unless he can put these states

in play. in a new pew poll conducted since wednesday. just last month in the same poll, romney trailed by eight points. driving romney surge, a spike in republican enthusiasm, more republicans made it through pew's likely voter screen than democrats. and a larger group of registered voters, the candidates are tied at 46. while it's unlikely returns on election day make it unlikely in this pew sample that romney has the upper hand. and looking inside the pew numbers, we're looking at an unlikely -- now romney leads by six, 50-44. will we see that same shift in the battleground state polls? we'll have to see what happened what happens.

>> this is the last day for voters to register to vote there, that's why they're both there. romney kicks off a two-day ohio journey, he'll be back in ohio again on friday. meanwhile the president holds an evening rally at ohio state university in columbus. by the way romney starts his day on a family farm in central iowa. another midwestern battleground state. paul ryan does his debate prep today in florida. the vice president signalled a new urgency to voters saying, quote, i very much sbeintend ton this election, but we're only going to do it if everybody is obsessive between now and then. >> we cannot afford to be complacent and we can't afford to be cynical.

we can't do it if you've got someone who writes off half the nation before the election, but it's not going to happen if half the nation writes off itself by not voting. >> i had a bunch of people say don't be so polite, don't be so nice. i want everybody to understand something. what what was being presented wasn't leadership, that's cease manship. . >> and then the president took the muppets attack on mitt romney. turning the says my street comments from romney about ending federal subsidies into pbs into what i think might have been an oj joke. >> for all you moms and kids out there, you could have confidence that finally somebody is cracking down on big bird.

elmo has been seen in in a white suburban, he's driving for the border. >> okay, i'm sorry, i saw it a couple of times, i'm like did he say what? nch this morning the obama campaign is out amplifying the says my street not wall street adark. the ad is not going to air in a single battleground state, it's only being bought on national cable, so they tell me. take a look at it. >> bernie madoff, criminals, gluttons of greed and the evil genius who towered over them. one man has the guts to speak his name. >> big bird, big bird, big bird. >> it's me, big bird. >> mitt romney knows it's not wall street you have to worry about, it's "sesame street."

>> it's six days later, the obama campaign seems to be looking back at the campaign and not able to turn the page after the debate. maybe it's part of the entire qualm pain conversation. you have to ask yourself, every time they bring up the debate, is that good for obama? or is that good for romney. driving rain didn't keep romney from -- >> people w07bd why it is i'm so confident that we're going to win. i'm confident because i see you here on a stay like this, this is unbelievable. unemployment has droppeded below the 8% mark. we wondered if romney would have to drop one of his favorite quotes, that the united states has been above 8%. >> if you look back 60 years and

you look at all the months we had of unemployment over 8%. under this president there's been 43 months, under one president alone. >> you see governor mcdonnell back there, his hair still looks good even if it's soaking wet. romney showed that softer sides on that temperaturing speech talking about a dying 14-year-old boy he befriended from the san francisco show "saturday night lights jrktsz. >> david didn't make it, but he did not lose, david's one of my heroes rp heroes, he's one of the confidence builders i have in america's future. >> romney's retooled speech is evidence of a growing role of ann romney and the couple's oldest son tag in the campaign that they're the ones pushing

candidate romney to humanize himself, play all the charitable size. yesterday romney also passed out mcdonald's to reporters and had an impromptu rope line where he shook the hands of fourth and fifth graders. the next potential turning point in the campaign will come thursday when vice president biden and paul ryan fates off in danville, kentucky. last night the debate got a mention before a crowd of 4,000 in michigan by a guy who introduced ryan as a fellow hunter and a fellow fan of rock 'n roll, none other than mr. kid rock. >> i enjoyed it so much, i think i might throw a keg party for the ryan-biden debate. >> of course in the interview with a flint, michigan affiliate

ended abbankruruptly ended with. >> the best thing to fight crime in inner cities is to -- >> you can do all that by cutting taxes, with a big tax cut? >> those are your words, not mine, thank you very much sir. >> that was kind of strange. >> the campaign that was michael steele the press secretary was putting a white paper in front of the camera. the reporter knew he was already well over the allotted time to the interview when he decided to ask a weird question. ryan spongded as anyone would in such a situation, when you do nearly 12 hung interviews in a couple of months, eventually you're going to see a local

reporter embarrass himself. romney will take questions on thursday night at the winter green resort in virginia where he even did debate prep on an indoor tennis court we're told. he's in florida for more debate prep. >> joe biden is one of the best debaters we have seen in modern politics, he's been doing this 40 years, he ran for president twice and for vice president. this is my first time on a substantial stage. >> ryan is reviewing biden's 2004 debate with sarah palin. on monday ryan attacked what he says is the democrats strategy now. >> i really think that because they had such a bad debate that joe is going to come flying at us. it seems their new strategy is

to basically call us liars, to descend down into a mud pit and hopefully with enough mud slinging, people will get demoralized and they can win by default. >> vice president biden has also been reviewing video of ryan's speeches in interviews and he's also reading ryan's book now. >> what i have been doing mostly is quite frankly studying up on congressman ryan's positions on the issues. and governor romney has embra d embraceded everything i can say. i don't want to say anything in the debate that's not completely accurate. >> two of them are going to be seated and that does change sort

of how candidates interact. trust me, spirit over the years has shown that. it's about 60 hours until the first and only vice presidential debate. expectations are now a little bit higher and it's paul ryan's first debate. it seems ryan is down there, it's more debate boot camp. he's done quite a few mock debates, has he not? >> where do you go to aid and reslacks, but also to prepare for the bickest 90 minutes of their life. you're bound to hear some debiting going on from table to table. the campaign is describing this

as a day of debate prep. which don't know if the former debate partner will be down here helping him go through notes and things they feel like they may be able to improve on. but in the last new days, paul ryan has been asked about his own etake on the debate. you heard him say that he expects the vice president to come at him hot an heavy, we do expect that -- his mom is a snowbird down here who lives in the winter, he's probably wanting to talk to his mother and other seniors about their concerns about the ryan plan for medicare reform. he knows he's got a couple of heavy days ahead of him. >> you brought up his mom, his mom's really playing an active role in the campaign, she got involved in some voter contact in florida, didn't she? >> palm ryan's mother made the 9

millionth voter contact down here in florida. they still have some ground to make up on the romney campaign here in florida. but they feel confident they have a chance to win here. the three states this will perhaps matter most, florida, ohio and virginia. they'll probably have to win two of three of those states. and then as you mention, ohio seems to be the place where we are every other day. >> ron mott in st. petersberg, it's much warmer everywhere else. it's just 28 days until election day? senate surprises. up is down, cats and doggings living together, we got new numbers to show you in some senate states.

plugs coin flip counties, we're taking a look at the biggest t battleground counties. but first, a look ahead at the schedules of the president, who makings up in california that heads to ohio and mitt romney as you know, from iowa to ohio. he's in the four letter state game. you're watching the daily you're watching the daily rundown only on msnbc.

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well if the new pew poll is

to be believed, the romney bounce -- ate point lead in september. it's a large swing, this is one of those goods polls amount of people do watch. on the question of who's a strong leader, romney's turned a 13 point obama lead into a tie. romney now holds an eight-point lead. zrak strategist and principal at the romney group. sarah i want to start with you, you've been in odd way in this situation before, you had a good lead, not out of the margin, but in a similar place. what was that conversation like with the president? >> you know, i think what you have to do is take a step back

and get back in campaign mode. so what happens a lot of times with presidents is they are so focused on the job at hand, they assume that they can do this and do it very well because they do it every day. although this is a very different game, the debate stage. and it really did look to me like president obama did not take mitt romney seriously. and i think that really came through and you see that boost in the numbers and mitt took advantage of it. >> how did president bush at the time, did his attitude change about kerry, like oh, wait a minute, this isn't going to be as easy as i thought. >> i don't think the president ever didn't take john kerry seriously, but i think presidents like bush and others, reagan did the same, think that they're better at this than maybe they are and they really have to take advantage of prep time and thinking through it and there's also a lot more people at the table when there's a

president. >> too many people giving too much advice. >> you need to have the rite people potentially. >> jamaal, i want to play a clip of what the president said last night again, it struck me as an odd criticism to make, because it's the biggest criticism a president make of himself. >> after the debate, i had a bunch of folks come to me, don't be so polite, don't be so nice. i want everybody to understand something. what-what was being presented wasn't leadership, that's salesmanship. >> isn't part of being a leader being able to make the sale? >> oh, absolutely. >> so it seems to me that -- and frankly there's a lot of democrats who are going to listen to that line and say yeah, and you didn't sell health care, and you didn't sell stimulus, you're pretty lousy at

sellsman ship. >> i i do think the white house has not done a good job of -- i think this is probably maybe the last time you hear the president talk about this debate before the election. it's time for him to move on. >> we're at stay six, and it's funny, the big bird add, it's clear it's not a battle ground state ad. but he calls it whining. that's a tough word. they certainly peep talking about the debate. why? >> it feels like it's a little bit in the president's head, i feel like it's in the president's head, but you have to move on. campaigns are like elephants, from the front there you see the trunk and the ears but there's a lot going on behind them. there are avltd of things that are happening behind what we're seeing on television which i

think are going to be helpful to the democratic campaign, and while the president didn't give a good performance, some of these things about mitt romney are baked back in. >> let's talk about to me, we won't know whether this is a new race until we see what the midwestern states are at. ohio, iowa, they have not written them off and they're really trying to get them back in play. if you're seeing the first ohio polls and you see the president still sitting at 49, does it matter to you if romney's at 47 or 44? >> it's a very different game when you're down 7 or 8 in the polls. at the end of the day, the president under 50 is a weak incumbent. what we're going to see is the turnout operation and i think the romney campaign has built a

really good get out the vote operation. >> are you confident it's as good as '04. >> it's as good as '04 and will be by the time election day rolls around. obama has spent so much money on the ground game. but if you don't have much enthusiasm as we saw in the pew poll, it's difficult to get the turnout. >> the obama campaign has turned their '08 operation into like the new star wars. >> he's in columbus ohio today for a reason. >> i went to four campaign offices for a reason. they did 10,000 voter -- they really have volunteers, they have people on the ground, they feel very confident people are now focused on that.

>> and the republicans have an edge on absentee -- it's a sign of organization. >> you've got to have boots on the ground tracking voters. >> there's only a concern in that there was a big influx of requests. so you have to -- that's how democrats have always done really well in iowa. >> florida is a republican absentee state. >> john mccain got 47% when barack obama was as popular as he's ever going to be. >> we have a race.

more trouble across the pond causing waves on wall street. plus a defiant jerry sandusky is trying to proclaim innocence from behind bars, the former penn state coach is going to learn his fate minutes from now. a trivia question, who were the first vice president m candidate to participate in a debate in the presidential elect shung?

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a few surprising shifts, the country claims it has missiles

that can reach the u.s. main land. comes just days after the u.s. reached a deal with seoul that would allow them to possess longer range midwests. >> less than a month, to election die. i want to point them out, a new poll out of michigan has the preside president. in a north dakota, the natt race between republican congressman rickberg and former democrat -- released yesterday, berg and high camp tied at 47%. and finally for the senate race in massachusetts where the wbr

poll makes a turn in that race. scott brown is now up on elizabeth warren. there's at of different numbers coming out of massachusetts, that's just the most recent. some of them have shown warren ahead. the imf is again lowering it's forecast for global economic growth calling the risk of a worldwide slowdown, quote, alarmingly high. let's get to the market rundown. becky quick is here. we have been talking about a worldwide slowdown in growth for four years. >> the last time they did it was back in april. now they're talking about 3.3%. so it keeps getting scrunches and scrunched and scrunched and

feeling more and more painful. this 33 point growth is making sure that we as americans get our act together and don't go over the fiscal shift. too much austerity can have some really bad implications, that's certainly what's happened to these european countries in the meantime. it shows us what a fine line we have to walk in terms of getting our fiscal house in order but not cutting too much too drastically. it just shows us the trouble we're having around the states and around the globe. next developing news from the sandusky sentencing, plus we have some new technology to show off, an even better way to show the most critical battleground states and the -- we'll be back in 37 seconds.

as we told you at the top, right now, former penn state coach, a convicted sex offender jerry sandusky's sentencing hearing, sandusky declared that he's innocent of those 45 counts of child sex abuse in this recorded statement. which is likely a preview of what he plans to tell the judge said, sandusky says the whole trial was a setup and that all of these accusers apparently conspired against him. >> evaluate the accuse ers and

their families, realize they didn't come out of isolation, the accusers are products of many more people and experiencing than me. think about their confidants and their honesty. think of how easy it was to turn on me given the potential perks. people need to be portrayed for who they really are. >> that perks line, wow. live from bell font, pennsylvania. perks, that is one defiant statement john yang. >> absolutely, chuck, it's not only the accusers he said con spird against him, he said the media, investigators, the system, penn state, psychologists and civil attorneys all conspired against him to put him where he is today. he says in his heart he knows he did not commit what he calls these disgusting acts. the hearing is under way now in the courthouse behind me. sandusky arrived about 15 minutes before the hearing began

in a bright red prison jump suit. he has lost weight, we're told he will be making a statement in this hearing, according to his attorneys yesterday, he particularly wans to avoid being sent into solitary confinement in prison. he would like to be in the general population. we'll also hear from some of the victims, a handful of the eight victim who is testified against him have arrived in court. they are some, at least some are expected to read statements, others have submitted statements to the judge talking about their wishes for his sentence. talking about the impact of the crimes that sandusky was confli convicted on. sandusky faces a maximum of 400 years in prison, we don't expect the sentence to even approach that, at 68 years old, i think there's an agreement that whatever sentence he gets, it's

effectively a life sentence. well, let's get back to the campaign, they're the biggest swing counties and the biggest swing states and they're among the best indicators of where this race will be won or lost. the criteria was simple. we're looking at counties in the battleground states that went red in '04 and blue in '08. for today, we're going to do flova, florida, ohio, virginia so that you understand i'm spelling the big state of flohva. wlem start with the great state of florida here, as you see, we have a bunch of new bells and whistles, bush in 2004, obama in 2008. all of that stuff. now we can take you to our county map here and of course the biggest county that flipped from red to blue in 2008 was

hillsboro in the tampa area, watch that blue there, bush of course carried, you can see some of the other counties that moved. but as you can see, all of the swing counties, all of them are sitting in that i 4 corridor, and that megaoplois. let's move to the oh part of my great state. here's ohio, everything you need to know. again, look at these advantages by the way on money. this is going to be one of these untold stories of the campaign. harder to tell on television, how much of the obama campaign versus the romney campaign. the biggest county, we actually gave you a tease there, the biggest county that flipped, red or blue. our kelly o'donnell was doing a

profile of that, hamilton county went from red to blue back in 2004, that and all the counties you see a few of them moved here, not many, up here on lake erie, but the big one here to understand is sitting there in hamilton. a few things you should know, obama won it by 21,000 votes, bush won it by 23,000 votes. finally let's go to the va portion of the great megastate of flohva. the you're probably wondering, it is prince william county there, that's what moved, loudon

was a county that moved as well. it was all right shifting in 2004. bush only one this county by 8,500 votes. this is one of those dual threat counties, it's a county that's growing and becoming more democratic as it's growing and this is why it's an important county for the president to hole on to, but it's margin there will matter. >> is the population growth there something that he's able to take advantage of? >> we have got a lot of new toys, this will also takes all around the country, all senate races everywhere. we're going to be messing around. look at that battleground of senate maps, half of them are going to be senate races decided by about 12 points or less. half of these races. we have got four weeks to go, we're going to be messing with them a lot.

if i'm not using it every day, i'm going to make up for it. white house soup of the day, the president doesn't get to the white house for this evening. maybe he can have this for denver. cream of tomato. you can always follow this show on facebook, you're watching the daily rundown only on msnbc. [ male announcer ] let's say you need to take care of legal matters.

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the president said he viewed the prize as not of his accomplishments but as an acknowledgeable of an african leader. in making the case for why sometimes societies have to wage war. anyway, despite the new pew poll about why voters gain traction nationally is that voter also make the race to 270. if you look at where the campaign made the most gains is among voters in the midwest. >> joining me now, roll call's david drucker listed only from the associated press. >> a week ago, there was a serious shift going on in ohio.

new they're back. there's 49% and 47%. >> the path was there to begin with for romney. >> so narrowing it's hard to see how they do that. in ohio, it's a state that will be tight until the end. i'm not convinced it was ever a serious discussion, because the path is that narrow. so i think what withdryou're go see particularly in ohio, the race is going to be tighten, it will be a down to the wire race and the obama team recognizes that. and that's why you have seen the obama team continue to hammer on him in ohio and push the ground game even when the polls were showing a ground game. >> this is the issue about the romney campaign, they have

clearly got a bump and it's interesting to me they decided they went to iowa and ohio. two states that had the biggest deficits predebate and that's where he is today to see if he can basically get those back. >> i thought what was interesting, we're starting to see obama hit more than one state in one day. >> i didn't know he was capable of that. >> if you look at iowa and you look at ohio, what romney could feel optimistic about is that although he hastrailed, there's still a conversation about the economy and national debt. despite the lower unm employment rates than nationally. i if the candidate performs the way he did in the debate in terms of explaining for himself what he wants to do he has a chance to make up ground because it is fertile territory for him.

>> it's a matter of how he performs. >> and obama under performed his campaign at the debates, the question is can the campaign apparatus measure up to romney the candidate. and does romney the candidate stay the guy we saw on saturday night. >> just when we think we have a game changing moment that something else happens, and these polls showing a romney advantage, i still don't think we have polls showing whether those jobs numbers from friday. >> if that maretters, right. you guys have narrowed it down to six states. iowa has been the one that not everybody's sure. but you have new hampshire, ohio, wisconsin that lean romney. and you have north carolina, i start looking at that map, that's over --

>> 269. is that one away? >> that's a fire row path, and it always comes down to ohio, we feel like a broken record talking about it. but if the president can maintain that advantage in ohio like he had a few days ago, the road gets extremely tough. >> we have got our ground game, but why do you think they keep talking about the debate. >> i think they were stunned, i didn't think they realizeded. >> i think it probably got into all their head. i also think it's a tactic here, if you talk about how moorely the president did, it's just going to fire up his base, i actually think they l i think there was a sense for a while among the base that he's got this thing wrapped up. and so now, you know, they see him as, you know, problematic. >> that's some interesting reverse psychology, i tell you,

talking with these people, the day after the debate, talking with the supporters in denver. they still show up, but they were like, come on. there was a little debate. the president fumbling would have been a good thing in the long run. >> if the focus is the president, president bush, he had an overconfidence if you will going on with john kerry. >> fumbling is only good in hindsight that you know for a fact that it clears your mind set. the obama campaign has been so relentless inn and effective in defining trom hi as what they want. i'm wonderingive that's why they have been willing to talk about? >> the only thing i would say is the romney campaign does not

seem to be trying to, the obama folks have spent a lot of money talking about the debate, forget big bird, but the real ads are in the battleground states. the romney campaign hasn't done that. >> when you have chris the media does it enough and when you have chris matthews spreading the message for you, why do it yourself? >> but there is a danger of overconfidence. yes, it was one debate. we have two more debates and the vice presidential. i don't know how much that will matter, but -- >> it's the most important event this week. >> but 28 days is a long time. >> most important event this week, until the next one. all right, stick around. i want to talk a little senate when we come back on the other side and i have nathan here. i can't help myself. and a "roll call" guy. we're in geek heaven, right, liz? trivia time. we asked who were the first vice presidential candidates to participate in a televised general election debate? the answer? democrat wars! bob dole and walter mondale, the 1976 vice presidential debate

was the first one in history, actually, and arguably still among the most acrimonious to date. how about that? do you have a political trivia question that should be on the show? e-mail us at dailyrundown@msnbc.com. we'll be right back. and i'm do. i was expecting it to feel like i was on a diet, but the good news is, i don't. i actually still eat real food. things that i love. i'm losing weight, and i'm not feeling deprived. i never thought i'd be able to say that. i still have a ways to go but i feel more motivated than ever. i'm a mom now, and the most important thing is that i'm healthy. [ female announcer ] join now for free. hurry offer ends october 20th. weight watchers. because it works. progresso. in what world do potatoes, bacon and cheese add up to 100 calories? your world. ♪ [ whispers ] real bacon... creamy cheese... 100 calories... [ chef ] ma'am [ male announcer ] progresso. you gotta taste this soup.

bring back our panel, david drucker, liz sidoti. i have a rothenberg and a "roll call" guy here. how can i not do a little senate with you guys, plus liz sidoti. we're supposed to be the political junkies. toss-ups, massachusetts, what do you have here? montana, north dakota, nevada, virginia, wisconsin. i want to talk about the pure toss-ups. north dakota, this is the race, it's sort of representative of what this cycle has turned into. there are a lot of like, hey, red state might go blue, blue state might go red in the senate races. who says there's polarization? >> that's true. for the first time in three

cycles, no wave to ride, so you've seen a grudge match. and in north dakota, what you have is a democratic candidate with a good family name in the state running maybe among the best senate campaigns in the country. >> against a freshman member of congress trying for a promotion. maybe when you look back you're going to think a little bit too soon. >> a little bit too soon. and if romney can, you know, win big in north dakota, he's clearly going to win, that helps. >> big, right. >> but if it's not big enough, given where berg's been, could be problematic. >> presidential coattails and the battle for the senate in the presidential swing states, it's a place like virginia. >> yeah, that's the one to watch. i mean -- >> maintain control. it may determine -- >> yeah, and if you recall, that's how it was a few cycles ago, where virginia did determine control, but the kaine folks are feeling pretty good right now, they're not getting overconfident, and they recognize this is the top presidential battleground, and to a large degree, it's out of their hands. >> allen's run a lot better race than people expected, nathan, montana, a big debate last

night. it's been a toss-up for years. it's never changed. we knew montana could be would be a toss-up. >> swing voters and nobody knows where they live. tester has more montana, the flattop and the farmer. now it's just democrats trying to rip the bark off of reebering. >> and erieberg has been trying to bash bush, saying look at me, i'm not the republican you may think i am. shameless plugs, liz sidoti. >> the regional center in virginia took care of us after the dog blew out her knee, so i want to thank them. >> nice. >> "roll call" election preview, last one before the election, comes out today. if you're a congressional junkie like you, chuck, check it out. >> politicsinstereo.com, started with 5 states, up to 19 states, so some of the best state-based, left, right, best political reporting you'll find. >> all good stuff. that's it for this edition of "the daily rundown."

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